MOON'S PEACE PROCESS DOOMED TO FAIL THE SECURITY OF KOREAN PENINSULA
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION MAY CONSIDER THE IRAN MODEL IN DEALING WITH NK NUKE ISSUE
KIM'S STATEMENTS MORE BELIEVABLE THAN MOON'S
SKG US POLICY INCONGRUENT WITH USG CHINA POLICY
MOON'S INTENT TO CONSULT WITH KIM ON US-SK MILITARY EXERCISE TREASONOUS
CHINA WILLING TO EXPLOIT NK ISSUES WITH THE US
Washington, D.C. February 18, 2021 (ICAS) — A fifteenth new poll conducted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) continues to identify issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula from a national security standpoint of the U.S.
Conducted to an ICAS audience on the Hill, 52% of the respondents think that the Biden administration will take a hard line stance (i.e., maximum pressure) towards the Kim regime in comparison to the Trump administration while 45% think otherwise.
80% of the respondents believe that the Moon administration will continue to take a dovish stance (i.e., peace at any cost) towards the Kim regime vis-a-vis what it has reportedly been.
52% of the respondents believe that the Biden administration may consider taking the Iran model (i.e., JCPOA-like agreement) to deal with the NK nuke issues. 41% do not believe so.
Only 7% of the respondents think that the Moon's "Korea Peace Process" will prove to be a successful adventure for the security of the Korean Peninsula whereas 90% do not think so.
24% of the respondents believe that the Moon administration will ever prioritize the denuclearization of NK over the peace process initiative while 76% do not believe so.
The survey also tested the recent statements of Kim and Moon, respectively, and asked who they found to be more believable. At the recent NK 8th Korean Workers Party (KWP) Congress, Kim reportedly declared that a tactical nuclear attack was possible on SK in order to achieve unification by force. However, Moon was quoted as saying at his New Year's press conference that Kim was intent to "denuclearize". Interestingly, 76% of the respondents replied that Kim’s statement was more believable while 10% thought Moon to be more believable.
34% of the respondents believe that Moon's US policy will be congruent with Biden's stance with respect to its China policy. 62% disagreed.
Responding to a recent statement of Moon that his administration may discuss with the Kim's regime about the US-SK combined military exercises, if necessary, 70% of the respondents believe that such consultation is not only treasonous but also will harm the core of the readiness of the US-SK forces and damage the fundamentals of the Alliance. 28% do not believe so.
31% of the respondents think that the Moon administration understands how much risk there is to SK's national security by unilaterally advocating the Moon's "peace" initiative while 66% do not think so.
80% of the respondents think that China may be willing to use the NK card to moderate the US policy towards China. 20% disagreed.
The respondents’ perceptions of the Moon administration’s stance vis-à-vis key neighbours are pro-China 69%, anti-Japan 66%, pro-NK 52% and anti-US 31%, respectively.
The survey was conducted from January 27 to February 13, 2021 via email with a moderate credibility interval.
Supplemental graphic data are available on www.icasinc.org/strategy.html and www.icasinc.org/strategy/polling15.pptx
Inquiry to ICAS@icasinc.org
About Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS)
ICAS was established in 1973, as a non-profit, non-partisan, and private educational and research organization and it is incorporated in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. ICAS is not an agent of any government and/or a foreign principal, and is solely supported by voluntary contributions. Its activities and programs rely on the private donations of the general public, i.e., individuals, foundations, and corporations. ICAS promotes pertinent relations and conducts appropriate activities with a special emphasis on multilateral relations between the United States and Asia-Pacific rim nations. Its membership includes individuals from varied sectors embracing academic, corporate, cultural, educational, international and other related fields. ICAS strives to provide public services pro bono publico.